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How Will Climate Change Impact Agriculture In New Mexico?

Daisy Bond

Agriculture is an integral part of New Mexico’s culture and economy. Farmers and ranchers in New Mexico exist in a delicate balance with the climate -- changes in climate will mean changes for agriculture, which will impact all of New Mexico.

Water. All of New Mexican agriculture is acutely sensitive to changes in the water supply, and the continued availability of water is climate-dependent.

• Irrigation. Irrigation is New Mexico’s largest use of water, and more than one-half of all farmed acres in New Mexico are irrigated. This practice relies on groundwater and surface water supplies replenished by rainfall and snowmelt. A warmer climate will mean faster evaporation, less snowfall and a faster, earlier spring snowmelt, resulting in a spring overflow too large to be stored for summer use. These changes will seriously jeopardize farming practices.
• Flooding. Earlier, more rapid snowmelts will contribute to winter and spring flooding, and more intense summer storms will increase the likelihood of flash floods.  More frequent rains and floods will increase erosion and pollution from mining runoff, and exacerbate levels of pesticides and fertilizers leached from agricultural lands.

Livestock. Agriculture is a $1.6 billion industry in New Mexico, about two-thirds of which comes from livestock.

• Water. Availability of water is often the single most important factor in determining the value of land for grazing. Droughts and changes in rainfall patterns could greatly endanger ranching practices.
• Vegetation. Success in ranching depends on the vegetation available for grazing animals. Changes in precipitation and temperature can directly affect grazing material. Elevated levels of carbon dioxide will induce a shift from the grasses ideal for grazing toward shrubs and other woody plants, making New Mexico’s rangelands unusable to livestock.

 
Crops. Crops are sensitive to changes in precipitation, temperature, and soil composition, all of which will be impacted by climate change.

• Yields. The principle crops of New Mexican farmers are sorghum, wheat, and hay. As temperatures rise beyond levels the crops can tolerate, wheat yields will be reduced by up to 30% and sorghum yields by up to 9%,
• Floods, Storms and Droughts. Agricultural systems are sensitive to extreme climatic events such as floods, wind storms, and droughts. Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. 
• Rainfall. Decreases in rainfall and faster evaporation threaten crops with water shortages and drought. Increases in rainfall intensity also pose a threat to agriculture and the environment because heavy rainfall leads to soil erosion, leaching of agricultural chemicals, and runoff that carries livestock waste into water bodies.